Published: Sat, October 13, 2018
Global Media | By Jackie Banks

IMF, Pakistani officials to meet today as govt seeks bailout

IMF, Pakistani officials to meet today as govt seeks bailout

The IMF's baseline forecast for the global economy is 3.7% growth in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Although the report said the sub-Saharan African economy was recovering from 2.7 per cent in 2017 to an average rate of about 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 3.8 per cent next year.

Adjustments would occur as domestic production displaces higher-priced imports, the model shows, but in the long run, the U.S. GDP would still be 1.0 percent below a baseline without these tariffs, while China's GDP output would be one half percent below the baseline.

Sustained trade tensions could slash Asia's economic growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in coming years, the International Monetary Fund said, urging policymakers in the region to liberalise markets to offset the fall in export sales.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning the trade war launched by US president Donald Trump against the rest of the world stands to impoverish world economies if not immediately resolved. It noted that risks from "further disruptions in trade policies" have become more prominent.

The IMF also revised down its growth forecast for the country for next year to 2.6 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from its earlier estimate.

The fund said risks to the short-term outlook for the world economy had "shifted to the downside".

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That includes President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on US$250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminium, steel and other products worldwide.

Last year, China shipped goods worth $375 billion more to the USA than it took in from the United States, a figure Trump has often said he wants to curb sharply in an effort to promote American businesses. Both figures would mark the slowest rate of Chinese expansion since 1990, when its growth rate was slashed in the aftermath of the violent suppression of pro-democracy protests. "Growth has proven to be less balanced than we had hoped", said IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld.

Existing, proposed and new retaliatory tariffs could cause maximum gross domestic product (GDP) losses of 1.6% in China and close to 1% in the U.S., it said.

"An intensification of trade tensions, and the associated rise in policy uncertainty, could dent business and financial market sentiment, trigger financial market volatility, and slow investment and trade", the International Monetary Fund said.

The Fed's rate hikes have already piled pressure on emerging market economies, increasing the risk of capital outflows as investors seek higher returns.

The trade confrontation weighs on China in particular, where growth is projected to slow to 6.6 per cent this year and 6.2 per cent in 2019, a downgrade of 0.2 points.

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